Ya Gotta Save It

(First published December 7, 2007)What with all the quickly shifting polls for preference in next year’s Republican Presidential race (mostly in Iowa and New Hampshire), it might be time to pause only a moment and reflect on some reality. Several points I doubt will change much:

No one has cast a single vote- yet. More than a month remains till we get there. Its also important to note that a month is an eternity in politics- like minutes of playing time in a sports event. In a totally open political season, with no incumbent seeking re-election, these much-quoted polls are very likely to oscillate all over the map and in very short time spans. The overall situational backdrop simply bakes our current highly movable opinion “in the cake”.

A political caucus is a dynamic, unique process with rules all its own that is also not well understood. First of all, (and most importantly) only a small minority of politically activist-type people will participate on either side. Additionally, this is a much more open process than simply showing up at some polling place to briefly cast a secret ballot in a booth. These people who choose to participate will have to devote a lot of time (5 to 7 hours) on a usually cold mid-winter night in the northern temperate zone. Holidays will only have just ended; college bowl games will still be in progress. These sorts of real-life distractions (plus a thousand others) do take their toll on total numbers that end up participating. Those brave souls who do follow through on their commitments to caucus will be dedicated, determined, usually seasoned- also a little weird (as in unlike most of the rest of us). They will gather at the appointed time- on 3 January remember-all across Iowa in churches, auditoriums, union halls, town halls etc. A series of successive ballots will slowly but surely winnow out candidates below certain threshholds of support until final counts are achieved.All this will play out fully in the open with friends, neighbors (enemies) looking on. Many will be the discussions, arguments, pleadings (bleatings),excuses etc. People will have to make first, then second, then later choices with a constant wearing backdrop of cajoling and maneuvering. Some will stay, others will go. Most will get angry. If you’ve ever been on a jury, you get the idea.

Values voters appear to be currently asserting their will in both parties. For the Democrats, this favors Obama- an apparent triumph of hope (and youth) over experience. We will see if all of this translates to actual support. Vermont former Gov Howard Dean thought it would in 2004. Young people do not tend to turn out. The Republican side is even more fluid. First of all, overall projected turnout is expected to be low. Its all to be expected after eight years in power this time out. Bush can be a big help to his party- but not yet. For now, he simply needs to do his job, win his war, raise some money (quietly), and continue to remind people (in his own subtle way) which party’s congressional leaders positioned themselves on the side of surrender and higher taxes. Meanwhile back on the ground, a tattered remnant that claims to be (what is left of) the Christian right seems to be getting in its innings on behalf of another former Gov- Mike Huckabee. Huck is a very engaging, personable guy from Arkansas (Heard this song before?) who could double as a magician- as in watch what I say; ignore how I governed. Huck does retail politics well which works in a small state requiring low budget expenditure. But he doesn’t have much money and has a limited shelf-life in northern parts of the country (NH). He is currently benefiting from a “bandwagon effect” brought on by a mood of get-back on the part of some voters who want to punish Rudy, McCain, and Romney. Whether they can continue their mad-on to Huck’s favor is questionable. This leaves Thompson as the wild card. Where he has been, he tends to generate a lot of loyal support. He has potential to be a lot of folks’ second choice on a cold winter’s night. When reality time finally descends, Fred starts to look more inviting. After all, how long can you stay that mad at a guy just because he doesn’t go to church enough to suit you? Reagan sure did get a lot more room for error- more on him later. Last item: McCain and Guiliani are uncompetitive because they took a dive on the straw poll back in August.

The far-end polar opposites are also wild cards. John Edwards (Democrat and statist) and Cong. Ron Paul (Republican and who-knows what) stand (like bookends) at each end of their party’s spectrum. Their voters are going to show up and make their views known. Some sucking up to them will be in order for a few of the big guys. Whether they would remain to vote a second choice is a real unknown. These two really mix things up and could skew results in many unpredictable ways. The Edwards people might go to Obama; the even fewer Paul people (who choose to stay) could go to Thompson.

Very small (nearly minute) percentages will determine overall winners. To win, you have to turn out the troops, beat expectations (a relative standard), and come in 3^rd or better (the absolute standard). This year, especially, Iowa success could mean little down-ballot. Years, and money, have been spent building massive turnout operations in a number of upcoming states. Former front-runners will not give up the fight easily. Additionally, New Hampshire serves as an object lesson in what is called a “favorite son” primary- in this case for former MA Gov Mitt Romney. New Hampshire is next door and the Boston media market dominates the New England airwaves (as in coverage and political commercials). Mitt also has a substantial war chest, and he’s a rich guy to boot. So even if he does worse that (once) expected in Iowa, he can always fall back to his built-in local advantage. For him, it is what some pros call a firewall.

A single issue, rising up like a phoenix, is lately being bandied (mostly by sources out of D.C.) as a new “third rail” of American politics- that being the issue of illegal immigration. We shall see. If this is true, how come it hasn’t benefitted the almost single-issue Republican candidate Tom Tancredo? Bottom line: in the top tier of Republicans, other than Fred Thompson, there are no candidates not tainted by their voting records or performance in office, on the important issue of illegal immigration. There is a very vocal group of voters who are still reveling in their role in stopping the immigration bill last summer. Its just another wild card; or is it a straw in the wind?

None of this starts until 2008 and most of us are bystanders anyway. All of it could well become a distraction from the Season of Peace and Light. Have a Merry Christmas and a joyous New Year!

For The Nonce—–PV